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                                何須轉型,只要成長
                                作者:擱淺 來源:本站 時間:2019-06-24 閱讀: 字體:
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                                  很多年前我失戀了,去香山坐纜車。只有我一個人坐,半山腰狂風大作,覺得命就要扔在那里了,我發誓如果我能安全下山就好好做人。當然下山后該怎樣還是怎樣。我們的人生需要失戀坐纜車這種特殊時刻。

                                  所有動物都有三種情緒:愉悅、恐懼、憤怒。人又多了愛、恨和憂傷,因為多了時間的尺度。人要是沒有時間的尺度,愛不起來,也恨不起來,時間的維度開掘得越深,屬于人性的光輝就越燦爛。

                                  2015年發生了很多事情,董明珠給股東一百多億,沒人知道,但是劉強東生孩子全國都知道;王建林去年的資本拼命往海外鋪,沒人知道,他的公子發微博,天下皆知……我們看到的最熱鬧的新聞未必是這個世界的真相。2015年舞臺上大人物表演的劇情,給這個時代構建的商業文明留下了什么?就像看待人的愛、恨和憂傷,看這些時同樣要融入時間的尺度。

                                  我想講講所謂的“互聯網恐慌”。互聯網像一個幽靈,在中國徘徊了很多年,2015年達到恐慌,不少企業家甘愿投入所有的身家去轉型,我認為這就到了不太理性的程度。很多人說馬云太壞了,把線下生意都毀了。可事實上,線上商業占所有商業不到5%,5%可以毀掉95%嗎?去年騰訊一年賺200多億,我朋友說還沒有我們公司多,他是中國煙草公司的員工,去年他們賺了1700多億。

                                  這讓我想起我小時候的一件事情,我5歲上學,學校里面我的同桌五大三粗,天天欺負我,我從來不怕他,我最不能忍受的是他說下課要揍我。互聯網恐慌就是五大三粗的家伙,它給我們三個字:你等著。很多企業朋友都有這樣的體會:它讓我們等著。

                                  那么,怎么看待2015年彌漫中國的互聯網恐慌呢?用生物學思維理解商業,把時間要素逮到思維中——像一只小蟲子一樣,站在每一個時間點上找到最佳的策略,如果帶著這樣的理解方式,理解“轉型”,我們的角度和結論就會不一樣。

                                  騰訊的馬化騰算是站在食物鏈的頂端吧,他沒有恐懼嗎?他在內部演講說,每一年他都感覺自己快要死了。不久前的烏鎮大會,他已經在深度憂慮下一個替代微信的物種是什么。

                                  達爾文在晚年的時候已經寫出《物種起源》,但被一個東西折磨得死去活來,那就是孔雀的尾巴——一個不適合覓食又消耗大量能量的尾巴,不適合物競天擇適者生存。他后來想,問題可能出在雌孔雀身上,它們不愿意和沒尾巴的雄孔雀交配,所以這個種類就絕種了——時間幫他找到了答案。

                                  時間的因素一旦被帶進思維,看問題就不一樣了。龐大的侏羅紀時期的恐龍如今安在?可最原始的單細胞細菌、蟑螂小強現在都活得好好的,互聯網恐慌值得恐慌嗎?

                                  中國人的互聯網恐慌還有一個因素是不愿意離開溫暖的體制。我一個紐約來的朋友說紐約的報紙也在倒閉,但是媒體人沒有像中國媒體行業末日來臨的氣氛,為什么?因為對于美國媒體人來說,很好,任何一個組織的解散不是從業者的失敗,是組織的失敗。人類已經創造了另外的資源整合方式,而且新媒體公司開出更多的薪水和期權,大家唱著歌,小跑著去就完了。

                                  2015年的轉型之難和之前企業家的轉型之難怎么能比?我的電腦里面永遠留著柳傳志最早辦公室的照片,說難就去看看那張照片。

                                  用時間的尺度、生物學的思維來思考今天的商業,得出的結論真不一樣。我給出一個結論:何須轉型,只要成長。

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